Forecasts: From Accurate to Useful
Forecasting is increasingly common in healthcare. But how do you know if forecasts are "good", and more importantly, useful? This talk will discuss some of the ways forecasts are evaluated and how they relate to decision making in practice. We will use examples from hospital operations and clinical medicine to demonstrate concepts like picking the right baseline for comparison, when to use different measures of accuracy, and determining if your forecasts are not just accurate, but useful.